8:26 a.m.
The story: Good news for Green Bay: The Packers are beginning to gain the momentum they had last season when they won seven of their last eight games. Now the bad: They draw the Falcons in Atlanta, where Matt Ryan is 18-1 -- including 14 straight victories -- since stepping in at quarterback. OK, so he should have lost to San Francisco this year. He could have lost to Baltimore, too. And he could've lost to Tampa Bay. But he didn't, and he didn't because he almost never does in Atlanta, which is the definition of a home-field advantage.
Atlanta is considered the best team in the NFC by most people and the best team in the league by some. But there are a couple of clubs closing the gap, and Green Bay is one of them, which means this is our chance to find out if there's a gap left. Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of the best performances of his career, and the Packers are rolling. But they're one-dimensional, which is why I don't trust them. Yeah, so Brandon Jackson is OK, but that's the problem. He's nothing more than OK. Make him beat you, not Rodgers, and you have a chance.
The Packers' defense, on the other hand, is a load. It not only produces takeaways, it produces takeaways that turn into points -- lots and lots of points. The problem here for Green Bay is that not only must it combat Ryan; it must combat the league's seventh-ranked running game, with Michael Turner the threat. In 18 home games, he has 22 touchdowns and averages 101.3 yards rushing per game.
I think you can see what's going on here. We have two clubs that are beginning to peak -- each on a four-game winning streak -- but only one that has the home-field advantage. That makes Atlanta the favorite in a game that could decide home-field advantage for the playoffs.
Something to consider: The Packers outscored their last three opponents 85-10, with the 10 points the fewest Green Bay allowed over three games since 1974.
Three games I'd like to see
Tampa Bay at Baltimore, 4:15 p.m.
The line: Ravens by 7½
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Can Josh Freeman overcomes a Ravens D that excels at home? (AP) |
Baltimore is one of the top teams in the AFC, and it's where it is most comfortable -- namely, home, where it hasn't lost this season. Both those factors should be too much for the Bucs, who nevertheless are at their best (4-1) away from home. In fact, they just shut out San Francisco after making a cross-country trip, and blanking home teams is more difficult than finding work for JaMarcus Russell. But road games don't seem to faze Raheem Morris and his club, with the Bucs winning six of their last seven.
This one, however, is no ordinary road contest. The Ravens are a well-balanced team, with Joe Flacco beginning to settle in as a bona fide quarterback. Dating back to Week 3, Flacco is the NFL's highest-rated passer with 15 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and a rating of 107.7. Furthermore, he has five games this year with a rating of 110.8 or higher.
If Flacco can't beat you, Ray Rice or the Ravens' defense will. Over the last three seasons the Ravens allowed an average of 266.8 yards per game at home, best in the NFL, and have produced 34 interceptions -- second best in the league. Tampa's Josh Freeman can overcome fourth-quarter deficits, but how does he overcome that? I can't see it.
Something to consider: The Ravens have seven straight wins at home and 11 victories in their last 13 there. With a win Sunday, they establish the best home winning streak in team history.
Philadelphia at Chicago, 4:15 p.m.
The line: Eagles by 3½
The story: My nephew from Chicago keeps telling me I was wrong about the Bears, and I keep reminding him that NFL seasons are 16 games long, not 10. So let's see what the Bears have here. We know they can beat teams they're supposed to beat. But can they win games they shouldn't? They did earlier this year in Dallas, and that was good. They beat Green Bay, too. But lately they've run up their record against 95-pound weaklings, including a crippled Miami team playing with its third-string quarterback.
I know, I know, that's good, too. Good teams win games they're supposed to win. But they win games they shouldn't, too, and this is the first second-half speed bump for a Chicago team on a three-game tear.
Philadelphia is beginning to gain strength behind Michael Vick and an offense that can produce points from all directions. There's Vick throwing. There's Vick running. There's DeSean Jackson catching. There's LeSean McCoy running. There's Jeremy Maclin catching. I think you get the idea. Philadelphia has weapons that, oh, someone like, say, Miami does not.
Front and center, of course, is Vick. He's having the best season of his career and playing at such a high level that some Eagles' fans make him the league MVP after only six starts. Patience, people. Let the season unfold. Vick is more accurate than he's been in his life, and if you don't believe me check this week's quarterback ratings. He's still numero uno. Granted, he looked, well, vulnerable last weekend against the Giants. That can happen. He still won. And he still made enough plays to push Philadelphia into sole possession of first in the NFC East.
To beat him and the Eagles, Chicago must accomplish two things: 1) It must minimize the damage Vick inflicts, much as the Giants did last week, and 2) it must keep Jay Cutler from the costly interceptions that have characterized his career. Yeah, I know, he's thrown only three the last three games -- all of them wins. But the Eagles lead the NFL with 26 takeaways (including a league-best 19 interceptions), and they just produced five against the Giants. Do that to Cutler & Co., and this one's a rout.
If Chicago can keep the Eagles' pass rush from squeezing its quarterback, the Bears have a chance -- and look what's happened the past three weeks. Cutler was sacked six times. In his previous six starts he was sacked 27 times. Connect the dots.
Something to consider: The Bears' defense has allowed the fewest number of touchdown passes (6) in the league this season.
San Diego at Indianapolis, 8:20 p.m.
The line: Colts by 3½
The story: Three signs that the year is winding down: 1) Daylight is shorter; 2) the air is colder and 3) the San Diego Chargers are warmer. Nope, make that hot, hot, hot. It's become a cliche, but if it's November then San Diego must be making a push for the playoffs -- and it is. The Bolts won their last three, including Monday's demolition of Denver, which means they're right on schedule. They've won their last eight in November and their last 18 in December.
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Philip Rivers and the Chargers have enjoyed success against the Colts. (US Presswire) |
The Chargers historically match up well vs. Indy, winning four of their last five against the Colts, but this game looks different. Maybe that's because the Colts look desperate. They're not themselves, losing nearly as many games as they have offensive stars and struggling to string together victories.
Dallas Clark is gone. Anthony Gonzalez is gone. Now Austin Collie is sidelined again. Of course, they still have Peyton Manning, which always makes them dangerous, but even he couldn't rescue them against New England. That was a road game, and the Colts are 2-4 there. Now they return to a home where they haven't lost, and, yeah, that makes a difference. Their average margin of victory there is 13.5 points, with a six-point defeat of Cincinnati the closest call.
Only one problem: These are the Chargers, and this is San Diego's time of year. I know the Bolts are missing players galore and that tight end Antonio Gates and/or running back Ryan Mathews may not be active again, but that's nothing new for these guys or Philip Rivers. Plus, they get back wide receiver Vincent Jackson, and word is that he looks terrific in practice.
Both teams need this one. San Diego is within a game of first-place Kansas City in the AFC West. Indianapolis is tied with Jacksonville for first in the AFC South. Something has to give, and San Diego better hope it's not its special teams.
Something to consider: San Diego leads the NFL with 32 sacks.
Monday night lights
San Francisco at Arizona, 8:30 p.m.
The line: 49ers by 1½
The story: If TV is all about ratings, throw this one back. It doesn't just feature two of the NFL's worst clubs, it features the two worst teams in the NFL's worst division. The 49ers rank last in the league in scoring. The Cards are next to last in yards. Both are 3-7. Welcome to Black Monday.
| Peek at the Week XII |
| Analysis |
I don't see either of these clubs going there because both have sticky quarterback issues. The Cards are on a five-game slide, and the 49ers were just shut out at home. Forget who wins this game. The question is: Who is first to lose it?
Something to consider: Frank Gore has 10 rushing touchdowns in eight games vs. the Cards and averages 150 yards from scrimmage in his last three Monday Night Football appearances.
Crummy game of the week
Carolina at Cleveland, 1 p.m.
The line: Browns by 10½
The story: The Panthers are the worst team in football. The Browns just lost their third starting quarterback. Both teams have trouble scoring, but this just in: Cleveland has Jake Delhomme, its original starter this season, back at quarterback, and tell me he doesn't have something to prove.
He gets to play his ex-team.
That provides a story line to a game that needs something, anything, to liven it up. Cleveland's Eric Mangini has done a marvelous job withstanding injuries and a loss of playmakers to make the Browns competitive, but Carolina's John Fox is in the bunker. Maybe rookie Jimmy Clausen can help, but I doubt it. He returned to practice this week for the Panthers and hopes to play Sunday, but do you honestly think he makes a difference here? Neither do I.
Something to consider: The Browns have not surrendered a touchdown on opponents' opening possessions in 23 straight games -- the best current streak in the NFL.
Upset of the week
The story: The Chargers are building toward the playoffs; the Colts are stumbling over themselves, dropping two of their last three. Indianapolis is favored because it is home, and that's a good reason. The Colts haven't lost there this season and are 13-1 under Jim Caldwell. But San Diego is on a three-game roll and is beginning to look like the team that ran the table the second half of last season.
Yeah, OK, so the Chargers have a rash of injuries. The Colts do, too, with Austin Collie out of the lineup again this week. At least San Diego gets Vincent Jackson back in the lineup, and maybe he makes a difference. All I know is the Bolts historically play these guys tough, no matter where the game is. So I'm taking them because it's never, ever, ever wise to underestimate Philip Rivers the last two months of the season.
Five guys I'd like to be
1. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers: He has five straight wins in November, with 13 touchdown passes, no interceptions and a passer rating of 119. Furthermore, in his only appearance vs. the Falcons he threw for 313 yards, with three TDs and one interception.
2. Cleveland RB Peyton Hillis: He has touchdowns in nine of 10 games this season and faces the league's 24th-ranked run defense.
3. Houston QB Matt Schaub: In his last two starts vs. Tennessee he has six touchdown passes, no interceptions and a passer rating of 116.5.
4. Tampa Bay CB Aqib Talib: He has four interceptions and one touchdown in his last five road games.
5. Philadelphia DE Trent Cole: He aims for his fourth straight game vs. Chicago with a sack.
Five best mano-a-manos
1. Cleveland QB Jake Delhomme vs. Carolina: It's his first start since Sept. 12, and it's against the club he quarterbacked for seven years and took to its only Super Bowl. "I am fired up," said Delhomme. "I'm excited, I will say that." The danger, of course, is that he is too geeked up and makes the mistakes that have been characteristic of his last two seasons. In his last 13 appearances, including the 2008 playoffs, Delhomme has 27 interceptions.
2. Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher vs. Tennessee owner Bud Adams: The more I hear of this Vince Young fiasco the more I think Fisher isn't long for Tennessee. He's one of the best head coaches anywhere, but Adams' allegiance to Young could jeopardize Fisher's tenure in Tennessee. This drama bears following.
4. Philadelphia CB Asante Samuel vs. NFL Network's Deion Sanders: Samuel wasn't happy with Sanders' characterization of him as an "off-corner" or with the league's $40,000 fine for hitting Derek Hagan. "They don't pay me to tackle," he said of the NFL. "Now they're charging me to tackle."
5. Miami QB Chad Henne vs. Miami QB Tyler Thigpen: Who starts vs. Oakland? You tell me. It's a classified secret, and coach Tony Sparano isn't tipping his hand. "We're just preparing ourselves as if we're both playing," said Thigpen.
Five things that may only interest me
1. Tennessee's Chris Johnson needs 100 yards to tie Earl Campbell for most consecutive 100-yard games in November (9). Johnson also aims for his third straight 100-yard game vs. Houston.
2. The most balanced offenses in the NFL? Glad you asked. Three teams are tied. They are Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Tennessee, each of which throws 49.6 percent of the time and runs 50.4.
3. The 800 touchdowns through 11 weeks are second only to the 803 that were produced in 2002.
4. Arizona will wear black jerseys for the third and last time this season in Monday's game with San Francisco. In their previous two games in black, the Cards beat Washington in the preseason but lost an Oct. 31 date with Tampa Bay.
5. Over the past 14 quarters of play Green Bay has a plus-12 takeaway-to-turnover differential. The Packers have not committed a turnover in three straight games, the first time that has happened since 1963.
Numbers to crunch 6.6: Chris Johnson's average yards-per-carry vs. Houston
12.7: Points per game Ravens allowed at home the past three years, best in the NFL
23: Straight games where Philip Rivers has thrown a TD pass
191: Michael Vick passes without an interception
4-0: Brett Favre's career record vs. Washington
5-0: Donovan McNabb's career record vs. Minnesota, including the playoffs
6-2: Tennessee's record at Houston
16-4: Baltimore at home under John Harbaugh
Sunday weather watch
• Atlanta: Dome
• Baltimore: Sunny, high of 47
• Buffalo: Partly cloudy, high of 37
• Chicago: Mostly sunny, high of 45
• Cleveland: Mostly sunny, high of 41
• Houston: Partly cloudy, high of 73
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Mostly sunny, high of 49
• Washington, D.C.: Sunny, high of 50
• Seattle: Partly cloudy, high of 42
• Oakland: Sunny, high of 57
• Denver: Partly cloudy, high of 47
• Indianapolis: Sunny, high of 48
Where we will be
• Pete Prisco will be in Atlanta to determine the freezing point for Matty Ice.
• I'll be in Indianapolis to hold a table for Peyton Manning at Shapiro's.
• Mike Freeman will be in Baltimore to tell us what makes Joe cool.
• Gregg Doyel will be in Chicago to see if the Windy City can huff and puff and blow Michael Vick down.
extracted from cbssports.com
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