11:59 a.m.
JUPITER, Fla. -- The starting rotation with the lowest ERA in the National League last year didn't include Tim Lincecum or Roy Halladay.
It did, however, include Adam Wainwright.
But if it surprises you to learn that the Cardinal starters outpitched the Giants and Phillies (at least in terms of combined ERA), what may surprise you more is that the 2011 St. Louis rotation has a chance to be the strength of the team.
Even without Adam Wainwright.
Last month, when the Cardinals lost Wainwright to Tommy John surgery, there was this idea out there that the Cards also lost any chance of winning. There were even those suggesting that without Wainwright, the Cardinals would be better off just trading Albert Pujols, or that without Wainwright, the Cardinals would fall out of contention so fast that by midseason they'd be trading Chris Carpenter.
Maybe the alarmist reactions will prove to be right. But a month later, it just doesn't feel that way.
Instead it feels like the Cardinals rotation could be just fine, which likely means that the Cardinals will be just fine.
"We definitely feel that way," Jake Westbrook said.
Westbrook, who came to the Cardinals at midseason last year and is now 2 ½ years beyond his own Tommy John surgery, is one of the reasons. So is Kyle Lohse, who this spring has looked more like the 15-game winner he was in 2008 than the sometimes struggling, sometimes injured pitcher he was the last two years.
And then there's Kyle McClellan.
The day the Cardinals announced Wainwright was hurt, club officials were telling people that McClellan would get the first shot at the sudden opening in the rotation. And people for the most part weren't listening, instead suggesting that the Cards could sign a pitcher who is still a free agent (Kevin Millwood?) or trade for someone.
Then McClellan began getting Grapefruit League starts. Before long, scouts started talking about how good he looked. And even though manager Tony La Russa still wouldn't say that McClellan will be his fifth starter, scouts following the Cardinals basically started to assume it.
Sleeper ... Jaime Garcia: After sneaking his way into the fifth starter's spot in spring training last year, no one could have been more of a sleeper than Rookie of the Year candidate Garcia. This year he is more of a known quantity, but the lefty could still surprise many owners. Pitching coach Dave Duncan loves ground ball pitchers, and Garcia is a good one. He not only avoids the long ball, but he is a better bat-misser than other groundballers like Tim Hudson and Trevor Cahill. Garcia finished sixth in the majors in ERA (2.70) last season, but contrary to the perception of many, Garcia could have many more ERA leaderboard appearances in his future. He could perform like a No. 3 Fantasy starter in mixed leagues, but because more than a few owners will expect a serious dropoff, you can draft him later. Breakout ... David Freese: With just four homers in 240 at-bats, Freese's rookie season power output was a disappointment. After all, this was the same player who knocked 26 taters in his first season at Triple-A after having been skipped over Double-A. Last year he had surgery on both ankles, which have bothered him over the past two seasons. He is expected to be ready for the start of the season, and he still has the potential to deliver around 20 home runs with a batting average near last season's .296. That's solid mixed-league production, but he is likely to be available in the late rounds. Bust ... Ryan Theriot: That whistling noise you hear is the sound of Theriot's on-base percentage falling off a cliff. After completing the 2008 season with a .387 mark, he has finished the last two years at .343 and .321. His batting average has dropped along with his line drive rate, and he has also become less patient, drawing fewer walks. In spite of making fewer visits to the basepaths, Theriot has maintained his status as a 20-steal threat, but without a better batting average and on-base percentage, that isn't enough to make him rosterable in standard mixed leagues, even in Rotisserie formats. -- Al Melchior |
It's true that McClellan has never started a game in the big leagues, making 202 relief appearances for the Cardinals over the last three seasons. It's true that even in his final season in the minor leagues, McClellan was basically a full-time reliever.
But no matter how many times he came out of the bullpen, he still thought he was a starter-in-waiting.
"Ultimately, this is what I wanted to do," he said.
And no matter how many times La Russa pointed to the bullpen and waved for McClellan, the manager always thought McClellan could start. The reason is that McClellan has four pitches and is willing to use all of them.
"He's been a starting pitcher pitching in the bullpen," La Russa said.
He's done it well, so well that La Russa said his biggest hesitation in naming McClellan as a starter is that he would lose McClellan as a crucial reliever.
"It's a hellacious decision to make," La Russa said.
Once it is made, assuming it is made, McClellan will join a special group. Starting pitchers on all teams tend to hang together, but there's a difference with the Cardinals, so much so that it often feels like the starting pitchers are in an exclusive club.
They watch each other's bullpen sessions between starts. They watch video together. A couple of years back, it was Carpenter who noticed something Wainwright was doing and pointed it out to him, helping start Wainwright on a roll that led to back-to-back top three finishes in the National League Cy Young voting.
That's the group -- the club -- McClellan wants to be a part of.
"He's going to have a lot more eyes on him," Carpenter said. "And you get motivation from the other guys."
This isn't the first spring where McClellan has worked as a starter. He did it two years ago, but only as insurance in case Carpenter wasn't ready as he recovered from injury. He did it last year, as part of a competition for the fifth starter's job, but the Cardinals always wanted that job to go to Jaime Garcia, and Garcia later justified their decision to pick him.
This year is different. This time the job seems to be his.
This time, the Cardinals really need him to take it.
They'll need the back end of the rotation to be better than it was last year. The back-end starters contributed to the low overall ERA, but the Cardinals were 44-50 last year in games started by anyone but Carpenter and Wainwright.
"You can't replace [Wainwright's] 20 wins with one guy," McClellan said. "But as a staff, I think we can do it."
La Russa believes that, too.
"You can't have a contending team without a solid rotation," he said. "And I believe we'll have a contending team."
Even without Adam Wainwright.
extracted from cbssports.com
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