West Regional breakdown - West: Duke is the star, but UConn will steal show

The West has both the good (Duke) and the bad (Bruce Pearl). Duke doesn't have to explain its excellence. At each of his press conferences, Pearl will have to explain why he should even be in the building.
The West has a potential third-round Big East matchup (Cincinnati vs. UConn). It has old money (Duke, Arizona) and new kids on the block (San Diego State and Northern Colorado). No one really knows which way Texas is headed. The Longhorns have Elite Eight talent, at least, but stumbled a bit down the stretch.

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The West favorites are Duke and UConn, but for different reasons. Connecticut played its way up to a No. 3 seed because of its Big East tournament run. Duke is, well, Duke -- a national-title contender armed for another run despite the loss of Kyrie Irving.
The cuddle factor goes to San Diego State. Steve Fisher had to go west to build a program that didn't matter until he got there. The Aztecs have both Final Four potential and a potential "home" in the West Regional at Anaheim.
Five main storylines
1. Defending champions: This team isn't exactly rebuilt with Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith still around, but are these Dookies as good as last year? Maybe. Are they maturing before our eyes? Absolutely yes. We'll see if there is enough hunger to defend that title.
2. Which way, Texas? Halfway through the Big 12 season, the Horns were on track to end Kansas' dominance. A Jan. 22 victory in Lawrence ended the Jayhawks' 69-game home winning streak. At that point, Jordan Hamilton was the conference player of the year. Things didn't quite go as planned. Kansas State won at Austin. Colorado scored 58 in the second half in Boulder. At one time, Texas was one of the best defensive teams in the country. We're not sure after Kansas scored 90 in the Big 12 title game Saturday.
3. The opposite of truth: Get ready, Bruce Pearl. For as long as you last in this bracket, you will be asked about lying to the NCAA. It overshadows everything you've done this season, including that gosh-awful orange coat. You're lucky to have a job, much less be in the NCAA tournament. That is the end of my rant.
4. Memphis turnaround: The Tigers started the season ranked, struggled to fourth place in Conference USA (10-6) then won the conference tournament on UTEP's floor. Joe Jackson, arguably the Tigers' biggest recruit in 15 years, has had an up-and-down season. Three weeks ago, UTEP beat Memphis by 27. Jackson played 14 minutes. On Saturday, Jackson scored 17 against the Miners a day after scoring 24 against East Carolina. The bracket is always more entertaining when the Tigers matter.
5. Beach brawn: San Diego State should play in a bowl and be in a tournament every season. I've maintained for years that you ought to be able to find 85 guys to play football and 13 to play basketball on Montezuma Mesa. It's freakin' San Diego. Brady Hoke and Steve Fisher are proving me right.
West Regional Picks
Who will win: Connecticut. Go with the hot hand. That would be the one belonging to Kemba Walker. The Huskies came into the Big East tournament as a No. 9 seed. Five withering days later, they emerged as legends with a seed (No. 3) higher than their regular-season finish in the Big East. All the pieces might not be there but it's better to be on a roll going into the tournament than not.
Dark-horse pick: San Diego State. The Aztecs are a No. 2 seed, but based on reputation, they are a No. 8 seed. The Aztecs have never won an NCAA tournament game. This is only their seventh appearance in the bracket. But this is a team with length that can defend. How many of you are picking them to beat Duke on UConn in the regional final? Thought so. Shame on you.
Most likely upset: No. 12 Memphis over No. 5 Arizona. How motivated will Josh Pastner be? In the first NCAA berth for Memphis since John Calipari left, Pastner gets to coach against his alma mater. Pastner was part of Arizona's 1997 national championship team and was a Wildcats assistant for six years. He has been to the tournament in all of his 14 years as a player, staffer or assistant coach. The kid is fearless. After a run in the Conference USA tournament, the Tigers are getting back to being that way, too.
Best mascot: Oakland's "The Grizz." No, the school is not in Oakland, Calif. The Golden Grizzlies rule the Summit League. The Grizz gets a pity mention because he is not lame like some mascots in this region and he actually reads to children in his down time. Beats the hell out of a dancing tree. Oh wait, Stanford's not in the bracket.
Best point guard: Nolan Smith, Duke. Not many teams could recover from a debilitating injury to a super freshman (Irving). Fewer teams could replace him with the ACC player of the year.
Best post player: Derrick Williams, Arizona. Williams broke a bone in his right hand in late January and continued to play well with it wrapped. During that time, he had 18 rebounds against California, 26 points against Washington State, and that block seen around the world (see below) against Washington.
Best coach: Too easy. Yes, the program has long been on auto-pilot for Coach K. Recruit, win, repeat. Yes, he snaps his fingers and gets the best players in the country. Yes, he's all that. But Mike Krzyzewski also still has the fire. The question is whether the defending champions are driven to go back-to-back. Look into Krzyzewski's eyes during one of those timeouts this month. The answer is a resounding yes.
Best reputation: Duke. The Fab Five might have trashed the Dookies on that ESPN special Sunday night but Duke remains basketball royalty. As long as you understand that going in, everything will go better for you. The haters are upset at the precision, at the winning, the K. But they have to admit, Duke does beat your ass with class.
Five stars on display
1. Kawhi Leonard (San Diego State): A West Coast brute who averages a double-double. Leonard is a 6-foot-7 forward who plays taller. Hard to believe this Riverside, Calif., product was overlooked by Pac-10 programs. There's a reason San Diego State won its first 20 games. If not for Jimmer Fredette, this is the guy who would have been getting the love out of the Mountain West.
2. Nolan Smith (Duke): Where is the factory that pumps out these Duke point guards? There was much consternation when Irving went down. Smith slid over seamlessly and became the ACC player of the year. Not only that, Smith led the conference in scoring. There aren't many things more valuable this time of year than to have a senior point guard.
3. Derrick Williams (Arizona): A reasonable person can argue whether Williams' game-saving block against Washington's Darnell Gant was goaltending, but it put the Pac-10 player of the year on the national map. The first freshman to lead the Wildcats in scoring, rebounding and field-goal percentage (since 1972-73) bloomed into a power forward force as a sophomore.
4. Kemba Walker (Connecticut): There are two players in the country at the moment that are identified by their first name -- Kemba and Jimmer. With apologies to BYU's Fredette, there is no better player in the country than UConn's inspirational guard. That performance in the Big East tournament (28 points per game) should be used to heal the sick. With quickly improving freshman Jeremy Lamb alongside, Calhoun's backcourt is among the best in the tournament.
5. Tristan Thompson (Texas): This sensational freshman from Canada was the Big 12 freshman of the year. Yes, he struggled in the Big 12 tournament title game but in the conference semis, he grabbed a career-high 10 offensive rebounds. Thompson was the Longhorns' second-leading scorer and rebounder in conference play. Jordan Hamilton takes the lead on this team but Thompson is a future star.
Six random notes
1. For all the attention focused on BYU, Jimmer and the Mountain West this year, don't forget D.J. Gay. It was the San Diego State's senior point guard's floater in the lane that beat UNLV (at home) in the Mountain West tournament semis. Gay has been called the Aztecs' "most important player" by Fisher.
2. If San Diego State doesn't get to the Sweet 16, something is wrong. It is playing close to home in Tucson for the first two games. After a walkover game against Northern Colorado, the Aztecs will get Penn State or Temple.
3. Best name? Temple swingman Scootie Randall. The Owls' third-leading scorer broke his foot Feb. 17 but says he'll be ready for the tournament.
4. After missing the tournament last season and starting 1-6, few gave Michigan a chance. The Wolverines were picked to finish 10th or 11th in the Big Ten. The schedule was among the 20 toughest in the country. Guard Darius Morris is No. 2 among tournament guards averaging 6.8 assists.
5. Oh, the irony. Northern Colorado is going to its first tournament with players recruited by Tad Boyle. One of the biggest injustices of the tournament was Boyle's new team, Colorado, not getting in the bracket. Maybe he should have stayed in Greeley, Colo. Or not.
6. What's the opposite of coming into the tournament on a roll? After a loss to Texas A&M in the Big 12 tournament, Missouri's Kim English said his team "quit." Not a good thing for a team that has trouble defending and rebounding. This is not a classic Mike Anderson team. These are one-dimensional Tigers (ninth nationally in scoring) who will exit early.