Mavs-Heat '06 redux? Hardly, but Dirk vs. LBJ is fabulous theater

Mavericks vs. Heat is billed as a rematch of the 2006 Finals, when the Mavs choked away their best chance at a championship. Their best chance until now, that is. Only four players between both teams remain from that Dallas debacle, so these are both very different clubs.
Especially the Heat.
Dwyane Wade now has some help. Lots of it, in fact. More than any other superstar in the post-Michael Jordan era, it can be argued. But depending on how this series unfolds, LeBron James could very well face the biggest challenge of his career, a defining moment in his impressive drive to rebuild his image and remind us what an all-time talent he is: guarding Dirk Nowitzki. Crazy, right? A 6-foot-8 small forward asked to check the best shooting 7-footer in NBA history? Well, the Heat might have to get crazy to give themselves the best chance of winning this series and fulfilling their championship mandate.
James successfully clamped down on one of the most fearsome little men in the NBA in the Eastern Conference finals, transforming Derrick Rose from MVP into a fitful blur of sound, speed and fury signifying nothing more than one win in the series. James has guarded point guards before. He's also guarded shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards and some centers. If called upon to defend Dirk, it would be a unique challenge -- one that perhaps James alone is equipped to even attempt among men of a certain size in the NBA.
So I've come up with five factors that will determine the outcome of the Finals, and this little matter of Dirk vs. LeBron is by far the most interesting and could well be the most important:
1: Who defends Dirk? Chris Bosh? He'll get the bulk of the possessions, but this isn't a viable strategy for the Heat in crunch time. Udonis Haslem? For short spurts, maybe. But the way I see it, the Heat's best hope of avoiding getting Nowitzki'd will be to send their best, all-purpose defender onto the floor in the fourth quarter and let him put his 6-8, 280-pound body and buzzsaw-like defensive abilities to the ultimate test. James is Miami's only defender with the strength to move Nowitzki away from the basket and prevent him from getting the ball in the Dirk Zone to begin with. After the catch, James is again Miami's only defender with the combination of length, lateral quickness, discipline and instincts to make Nowitzki work for his shots and take a few he'd rather not.
If James is called upon -- he must to be, in my view -- and is successful in knocking Dirk out of his comfort zone, it would be one of the greatest performances in Finals history. It would go right to the top of the list, right there with Magic Johnson playing center in Game 6 of the 1980 Finals against the 76ers. Yeah, that good.
But in this scenario, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra may have to tweak the closing lineup he finally was able to unveil late in the Bulls series and put Joel Anthony on the floor to contend with Tyson Chandler. He also might have to put a point guard on the floor to guard Jason Kidd (Mario Chalmers?), because if he puts Wade on Kidd, who defends Jason Terry? Wade should get that assignment, but then what about Shawn Marion? The Mavs' closing lineup presents matchup problems at multiple positions for Miami, whose league-high defensive efficiency in clutch situations in the playoffs (69 points allowed per 100 possessions) will be put to the ultimate test by the league's most efficient offense in clutch situations in the playoffs (148 points per 100 possessions).
2: Do the Mavs have enough quickness on the wings to contain LeBron and Wade?
Chandler will help. With Kendrick Perkins no longer patrolling the paint in Boston, Chandler will represent the most fearsome rim protector James and Wade have encountered in this playoff run. The rare moments when the Celtics and Bulls had success containing James and Wade came as a result of turning them into jump shooters. Sometimes, one of them would have the nerve to trump that strategy by making difficult shots from the perimeter. But against as complete a team as Dallas, this is not a viable strategy for Miami. If Chandler can stay out of foul trouble long enough to deter James and Wade from attacking the rim, the Mavs will be well on their way to taking control of this series.
3: Which Bosh shows up?
Bosh carried the Heat in Game 3 against the Bulls, and when he has it going, it can make guarding the LeBron-Wade-Bosh triumvirate demoralizing, if not impossible. Since both teams have played at a below-average pace during the postseason, these games will be about who can gain an advantage in the halfcourt. It'll be about how well Dallas can defend pick-and-rolls and isolation plays when LeBron or Wade has the ball on the wing. Nothing could be more frustrating than keeping LeBron or Wade away from the paint in those situations, only to have him dish to an open Bosh for a money 18-footer. Dallas, however, has a more versatile mix of defenders to throw at Bosh, who will find the ball in his hands at important moments again and again in this series.
4: Dallas has the better bench ... right?
Haslem suddenly is playing like the Haslem of '06 instead of the one who was 0-for-six months before asserting himself as a healthy, productive contributor midway through the Bulls series. Miller, who has dealt with injuries all season and had to tend to his ill newborn during the conference finals, played the way the Heat always anticipated he would in a productive Game 4 performance. But it remains to be seen whether the emergence of Haslem and Miller is an aberration or a trend; neither performed well in the series-clinching Game 5 victory in Chicago. The Mavs' second unit was a momentum-changer against the Lakers and Thunder, and it brings some interesting challenges for Spoelstra to consider. J.J. Barea's speed, penetration and peskiness; Jason Terry's creativity off the dribble and 3-point shooting; Brendan Haywood's size; and Peja Stojakovic's ability to serve as a release valve on the perimeter will put a lot of stress on Miami's defensive rotations. Haslem, Miller and Chalmers will be called upon to make a more consistent positive impact than they've provided thus far in the postseason.
5: Offensive rebounding and 3-point shooting -- the great equalizers.
The Heat's vulnerability on the glass was exposed by the Bulls, who simply didn't have enough other ways to score to make it count. Dallas is deceptively effective on the offensive glass; though the Mavs and Heat have both been below the league average in offensive rebounding rate in the playoffs, Dallas does a good job keeping possessions alive in key moments with tap-outs -- especially from Marion, who often is being boxed out by a smaller defender. Both teams emphasize getting stops and protecting the boards, which fuels their ability to get occasional, but important baskets in transition. Also worth noting: the Mavs are the third-best 3-point shooting team in the playoffs (.388), while the Heat are the third-worst 3-point defending team in the playoffs (.385). With every possession and every quality shot at a premium in the halfcourt, those two areas will be momentum-changers at important moments in this series.
It's a collision of two teams playing their best basketball at the perfect time. The Mavs are deep, playing cohesively and have an all-time player putting up playoff performances befitting his legendary imprint on the game.
The Heat have one of those, too. Though James isn't as far along in his career, he has risen to the expectations he accelerated by teaming with Wade last summer and putting the championship onus squarely on his shoulders. He has responded in ways even his harshest critics couldn't have imagined -- with other-worldly defense, devastating 3-point shooting and the mental chops to assert himself as Miami's closer against Boston and Chicago. At this point in James' championship mission, you pick against him at your peril. Which is what I do, taking the Mavericks in seven -- a nod to Dirk's brilliance, Kidd's experience, Dallas' overall depth and a stubborn belief that the NBA hasn't changed so much that a superteam can waltz through its first playoff run together and win a championship.
If basketball is still about matchups, the Mavs have the edge. If it's about star power, the Heat have outshined every opponent thus far and will do the same to the Mavs. The one thing we know for sure is, we will be entertained.